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On December 19, the 2020 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report, which was sponsored by the Sinopec Institute of Economics and Technology and co-organized by Wood McKenzie, was released and the seminar was held in Beijing. The report pointed out that next year, China's oil refining industry will usher in a year of full release of new production capacity and intense competition, and will also face the elimination and consolidation of the industry. The 13th Five-Year Plan guarantees that the main goals of China's energy planning will be achieved.

The report proposes that a new round of capacity expansion is coming, and the era of change in China's refining industry has arrived. In 2019, Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical went into production, and the domestic refining pattern and resource flow were restructured; the growth rate of refined oil terminal consumption slowed to 2.8%, and the consumption of light chemical oil increased sharply by 10.5%. In 2020, the wholesale and retail of refined oil products in China will be liberalized in turn, and the market-oriented reform of refined oil products will enter a tough period. It is estimated that the final consumption of refined oil products will be 403 million tons in 2020, a growth rate of 2.2%; and in 2020, China's primary oil refining capacity will reach 900 million tons, and the release of new production capacity will make domestic competition tend to heat up. It is estimated that China's refined oil export volume will reach 59 million tons in 2020, or it will become the largest exporter in Asia-Pacific.

Several experts interpreted the report. Fu Xiangsheng, deputy chairman of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that the current downward pressure on the industry will not end in a short time. It is necessary to pay close attention to factors such as the possible persistence of trade frictions and the continuous increase in crude oil dependence, especially overcapacity. In 2020, China's refining surplus will further intensify, and the growth of refined oil consumption will be weak. In addition, under the downward trend of global refining gross profit, the pressure of Chinese naphtha cracking may increase further. The transformation of traditional industries in the industry should be accelerated, and the cultivation of emerging industries should be accelerated to achieve the leap from a petrochemical country to a powerful country on a large international platform.

Experts from Yuhuan, vice president of Sinopec Economic Research Institute and other experts also said that the global petrochemical industry is ushering in a major cycle turn.

The report points out that the expansion of world petrochemical capacity in 2019 will further accelerate, and the risk of excess will increase; domestic ethylene equivalent consumption will increase by about 9%, and new-type consumption and alternative consumption will grow prominently. In 2020, China ’s petrochemical capacity expansion will continue to accelerate, and the new capacity of basic petrochemical raw materials will account for about 70% of the world's total. Polyolefins and other products will still face high inventory pressure. From 2019 to 2020, major breakthroughs or progress have been made in key technologies such as direct synthesis of olefins and OCM from domestic synthesis gas. A series of card-neck products such as adiponitrile have been constructed and produced using independent technologies. progression stage.

The report believes that China's energy transition is currently moving towards a gear shift. In 2019, China's primary energy consumption was about 4.79 billion tons of standard coal, a growth rate of 3.2%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous year. The effect of increasing oil and gas reserves and production has been remarkable. The coal capacity reduction task has been completed ahead of schedule, and the proportion of wind power photovoltaic installations has continued to rise.

In 2020, it is expected that the targets of total volume, structure and consumption intensity in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" of China's energy development will be basically achieved. The total primary energy demand is expected to be 4.93 billion tons of standard coal. The intensity of energy consumption is about 0.52 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan (GDP at constant prices in 2015), which will be 16% lower than in 2015.

More than 300 representatives from national government departments, Chinese and foreign oil and gas companies, consulting companies, and financial institutions attended the conference.

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