U.S. shale oil and gas production has experienced a slowdown after experiencing rapid growth in previous years, but the International Energy Agency said in its 2019 World Energy Outlook that under the established policy scenario, by 2030, About 85% of the world's new oil production and about 30% of natural gas will come from the United States. By that time, the United States' oil output will reach 22 million barrels per day, which is about equal to the sum of Russia and Saudi Arabia's output. The remaining 15% increase in oil production is divided by several other countries, including Iraq, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and so on.
Iraq ’s 2018 oil output was 4.7 million barrels per day. Forecasts show that by 2025, its oil production will increase to 5.3 million barrels per day; in 2040 it will reach 6.5 million barrels per day. However, there are also many uncertain factors. The increase in oil production mainly depends on the stability of the political situation and the investment situation of water injection projects. Brazil's oil production in 2018 was 2.7 million barrels per day and will reach 4.7 million barrels per day by 2040. Saudi Arabia's oil production (including natural gas liquids) will increase, from 12.4 million barrels per day in 2018 to 13.1 million barrels per day in 2040, mainly from its offshore oil fields. Russia's oil production will be gradually reduced due to the reduction of old oil fields and the new Arctic new shale oil project due to high costs and Western sanctions.
From this comparison, it can be seen that the United States has become the main source of oil growth for the world in the next 20 years, and among them, shale oil plays a major role.
US shale oil leverages global energy landscape
According to data released by the International Energy Agency on November 29, the U.S. crude oil and refined oil exports in September this year exceeded imports, and for the first time in 70 years, it became a net oil exporter. Behind this change is the US shale oil at work. The shale oil and gas revolution that started more than a decade ago has promoted the rapid growth of US oil and gas production.
In 2010, the US shale oil production was only 600,000 barrels per day, but it has now exceeded 6 million barrels per day, and it has also exceeded Saudi Arabia ’s increase in crude oil production at the end of the 1960s, which is extremely rare in the history of the global oil market. For this reason, in the World Energy Outlook in recent years, the IEA's predictions of US shale oil and gas have been very influential.
Industry continues to be optimistic about shale oil and gas prospects
In the World Energy Outlook 2018, the International Energy Agency believes that U.S. shale oil and gas will assume important responsibilities in the future global oil and gas supply market, especially considering that since the collapse of oil prices in mid-2014, global conventional oil and gas exploration investment has continued. The downward trend is likely to cause a large energy supply gap in the future, and the US shale oil and gas seems to be the only realistic source of growth. The International Energy Agency predicts that the United States needs to rebuild a Russian output scale within seven years to maintain a global balance of oil supply and demand. For this reason, the International Energy Agency predicted in the World Energy Outlook in 2018 that US shale oil production will start to decline from 2025, and called on the industry to increase investment in upstream oil and gas, and plan ahead to prevent the supply gap.
After a year, the oversupply of the global oil market has not changed much. Although it has experienced several "black swan" incidents such as the United States again sanctioning Iran and the attack on important Saudi Arabian crude oil processing facilities, the weak international oil market has not In the past, oil prices, which were common under similar incidents, have skyrocketed, and international oil prices are still hovering at relatively low prices. In the 2019 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency also no longer emphasizes the U.S.'s responsibility for supply, but its prospects for shale oil and gas are still optimistic. It believes that the U.S. will move from a net oil importer to a net oil exporter. Transformation and consolidation, as well as playing a more important role in the international oil and gas market, will mainly rely on shale oil and gas. According to the latest forecast of the International Energy Agency, under the established policy scenario, the US shale oil and gas production will exceed Russia's total oil and gas production in 2025; in 2030, the United States will export 12 million barrels per day of light oil and refined oil. , Imported oil (mainly heavy oil) will drop to 7.5 million barrels per day. The trend of the United States producing and exporting light oil while importing heavy oil will not change much, but the amount of oil flowing into and out of the United States will greatly exceed the pre-shale oil and gas revolution.
U.S. to extend shale oil production period
The 2019 World Energy Outlook increased the forecasted resource base of US shale oil to 155 billion barrels based on the US re-evaluation of several important shale areas, which is higher than the 2018 World Energy Outlook. 35%. In 2011, the International Energy Agency's valuation of this base was only 24 billion barrels. A higher base number means that US shale oil production has more room for growth and lasts longer.
Forecasts based on this base indicate that under the given policy scenario, by 2035, US shale oil production will increase from 6 million barrels per day last year to 11 million barrels per day, and the output of the Permian Basin alone will exceed the entire Production on the African continent. Compared with the 2018 World Energy Outlook, the 2019 World Energy Outlook emphasizes not when U.S. shale oil reaches its peak production, but rather the length of this peak plateau period. According to the International Energy Agency, if US shale oil production has not yet reached its peak in the mid-1930s, other countries that rely on oil resources will face even more severe challenges, and some countries may relax their control over production in order to occupy market share. Based on this consideration, the World Energy Outlook 2019 will reduce the international oil price forecast for 2040 by 10% from the 2018 forecast.
The long-term growth of US shale oil production will inevitably lead to a decline in the revenues of some conventional oil resource countries and exporting countries, which will also be accompanied by a shift in the voice of the international oil and gas market. With the sharp increase in the production of shale oil in the United States and the increase in production in Norway and Brazil, by 2025, OPEC's share of global oil production will shrink to 36%, which is its lowest proportion since 1990; to In 2030, the share of OPEC and Russia in the global oil market will also drop from 55% in 2005 to 47%. The rise and fall of share also means the transfer of the right to speak in the global oil and gas market. Compared with the 2018 World Energy Outlook ’s prediction that US shale oil production will start to decline in 2025, the 2019 World Energy Outlook indicates that US shale oil production will only start to decline after the mid-2030s. The Middle East oil-producing countries will then have the opportunity to regain market share and eventually return to current levels.
The World Energy Outlook 2019 also stated that by 2040, global oil production will increase by 10%, natural gas will increase by 40%, and the US oil and gas exporter status will be further consolidated.
Shale gas will become a new growth pole
The 2019 World Energy Outlook states that US shale gas will have more room to grow than shale oil. Under the established model, by the mid-1920s, a quarter of global natural gas production would come from the United States. Because the U.S. market and its pipeline networks connected to neighbouring Canada and Mexico can only absorb this capacity to a small extent, the United States will export mainly through liquefied natural gas (LNG). From now until 2040, the US LNG trade will grow rapidly at an average annual rate of 3.5%.
The 2019 World Energy Outlook states that under different forecast scenarios, the evolution path of oil and gas markets will be different, but the connection between US shale oil and gas has not changed. Although the relationship between oil and gas is relatively loose in the downstream area, the associated relationship between the two cannot be ignored in the upstream area. For every barrel of oil produced in the United States, there is 60 cubic meters of associated gas (2119 cubic feet).
The World Energy Outlook 2019 also pointed out the current worries of US shale oil and gas. Over the past decade, the International Energy Agency estimates that the U.S. unconventional oil and gas revolution has attracted more than $ 1 trillion in investment, and about $ 900 billion has been invested upstream, but so far many companies are still unprofitable. In 2018, overall shale oil and gas upstream failed to achieve positive cash flow. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the number of small and medium-sized shale oil and gas companies in the United States has filed another bankruptcy increase since 2014. These signs indicate that the overall financing environment of shale oil and gas companies, especially small and medium-sized companies, is very bad. Nevertheless, forecasts show that competition for shale oil and gas resources in the United States is in the ascendant, and the far-reaching effects of the shale oil and gas revolution will continue to manifest itself. The United States' experience in the unconventional oil and gas revolution also shows that changes in investment flows can quickly change the entire energy development landscape.
The "US Government"
It can be said that the current achievements of the US shale oil and gas industry are related to the assistance of the US government. After shale oil and gas production has greatly increased, the United States urgently needs corresponding supporting policies. Shortly before the release of this year's World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency also released a report on "U.S. Energy Policy Review." This report reviews and replays US energy policy over the past five years, highlighting the US government. The action on energy policy guidance and its role in promoting the development of the shale oil and gas industry can be regarded as a note on the basis and results of the US shale oil and gas forecast in the World Energy Outlook.
The strategic ideas reflected by the US government's energy-related policies over the past five years are mainly in the areas of increasing energy production, leveraging energy exports, leading energy technologies, and reducing consumer energy expenditures, and all have achieved good results. The core of these policies is mainly to eliminate the management ills that curb the increase in US energy production and improve the competitiveness of the US energy industry. The more important measures include lifting the ban on crude oil exports and simplifying the LNG export approval process, all of which are in place in a timely manner.
If the prospects described in the World Energy Outlook are to be realized, US shale oil and gas still faces many challenges, and its future growth in oil and gas production and export growth depends largely on breakthroughs in oil and gas transportation bottlenecks.
Although the U.S. government strives to facilitate oil and gas exports, the lack of infrastructure facilities in the midstream still restricts the future of the US shale oil and gas industry.
The International Energy Agency mentioned in the World Energy Outlook that increasing investment in relevant oil and gas pipeline networks will not only help export the United States' abundant oil and gas resources, but also significantly reduce the waste of natural gas venting and the environmental impact of oil production. The impact is obviously in line with the general trend of relevant measures taken by countries today to combat climate change.
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